This report presents updated population projections for Ontario and each of its 49 census divisions, by age and sex, from the new base year of 2009 to 2036. These projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance and are an update of the major revision to the projections released in November 2009, based on the 2006 Census.

The Ministry of Finance produces an updated set of population projections every year to provide planners and researchers with a demographic outlook reflecting the most up-to-date trends and historical data. This update is based on the new 2009 population estimates from Statistics Canada and includes minor changes to reflect the most recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration.

The updated projections have three scenarios for Ontario. The medium, or reference scenario, is considered most likely to occur. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a reasonable forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. Projections for each of the 49 census divisions are for the reference scenario only.

The projections do not represent Ontario government policy targets or desired population
outcomes, nor do they incorporate explicit economic or planning assumptions. They are developed using a standard demographic methodology in which assumptions for population growth reflect recent trends in all streams of migration and the continuing evolution of long-term fertility and mortality patterns in each census division. Census division projections are summed to obtain the Ontario total.

The report includes a set of detailed statistical tables on the new projections. Key demographic terms are defined in a glossary.

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